Is Nottingham Forest’s defence a safe bet for the future?

International break coming to an end feels good until you realise there’s another two-week hiatus in mid-November, meaning we won’t pick up proper momentum until that Christmas frenzy.

Luckily, there are many great topics to get you back into proper FPL headspace. I’ll discuss most of them in my weekly Twitter/X preview, but as my most dedicated fan, you’ll get something extra.

At the beginning of each season, I like to observe closely what’s happening with defences to gain some competitive advantage. In this week’s Data Dribble, I will investigate whether Nottingham Forest picked up where they left off.

We are 7 game weeks in, and the information is slowly piling up…

Scratching the surface with xG (before going deeper)

Last season, Forest ended up being 5th best Premier League defence in terms of expected goals conceded (xGC). Since the beginning of the calendar year, they were ranked 3rd best, with only Arsenal and Manchester City posting better results in the same metric.

They conceded many shots, but with 3rd lowest xG per shot. This is something you look for when picking your FPL goalkeeper, as these tend to rack up save points. At least in theory, as the player can have a poor season shot-stopping-wise, just like Matz Sels three years in a row. But more on him later.

So far this season, Forest are ranked 5th best in xGC. Sounds familiar? Well, as one of the sides with a great set of opening fixtures, it’s not a big surprise, right?

Most of us engaged managers targeted at least one of Sels, Aina, or Wood or took a calculated risk with budget midfielders like Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi, or Anthony Elanga.

However, a closer look at their opponents’ attacking quality shows they’ve allowed very few dangerous chances against teams that are pretty skilled at creating them…