Blank Gameweek 29: Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest analysis

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Today’s topic

As always, I wanted to begin by saying something that’s at least remotely funny.

But then I remembered I stumbled upon this tweet from Crate Digger that sums up the upcoming Blank Gameweek 29 nicely:

Spot on.

We have four fixtures to choose from this week, with Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest expected to be the tightest affair, according to the bookies.

So, let’s do some nice little match analysis to gain some edge from that game.

Overall look at both teams

If you read some of my content recently, you know I’ve been vocal about how well Nottingham Forest plays defensively.

More evidence came last week when they allowed just 0.50 xG in the away game against Brighton (with Brighton being an above-average league offence by most of the vital metrics).

Nicolás Domínguez, Murrilo or Danilo are class defensive players, and they’ll certainly be in demand this summer.

Nottingham’s defence in the sample size of the whole season (overall/per game):

• 40.42/1.44 non-penalty xG conceded (8th)

• 46/1.64 non-penalty goals conceded (16th, partly goalkeeping issues, partly bad luck)

• 372/13.29 shots allowed (8th)

• 0.109 xG/shot against (8th)

Since December, they have been ranked 6th for non-penalty xG againts, with 1.39 xGA per game:

With 2.22 xG conceded per game, Luton sit dead last in this metric, meaning they allow a massive volume of shots from dangerous positions.

Attacking-wise, both teams are pretty similar:

• 16. Luton - 1.22 non-penalty xG per game

• 17. Nottingham Forest - 1.18 non-penalty xG per game

Since December:

• 14. Luton - 1.38

• 16. Nottingham Forest - 1.21

October’s game

In the reverse fixture, Nottingham took a two-goal lead thanks to Chris Wood’s brace (Elanga assisted both goals) before Luton scored twice late on, including an injury-time effort from Elijah Adebayo, resulting in a 2-2 draw.

But Nottingham were a much better team in terms of both chances created and game control:

How will they exploit each other?

Nottingham Forest and counter attacks

Disregarding Sheffield, Nottingham play the lowest defensive block in the Premier League, with the lowest pressing intensity.

They tend to counter-attack heavily and have one of the highest average attack speeds in the league (number of forward meters gained per second).

And they are effective in doing this.

They amassed 3rd-highest xG from counter-attacks, just behind Liverpool and Aston Villa, scoring many goals in the process.

Luton are the worst in the Premier League defending these situations, and NFO will want to exploit this.

This makes their offence very appealing, especially Anthony Elanga, provided he will start. But we will know more as the week progresses.

Luton Town and set pieces

Where Luton can do a lot of damage are set-pieces.

They rank 5th in the total xG created from set pieces and have already scored 12 goals, the third-highest number in the league.

Nottingham already conceded 16 (!) set-piece goals, the most in the league.

Good news for those of you who own not only Alfie Doughty but also Carlton Morris and Ross Barkley, as they both have made a good number of corner attempts this season.

How do they create their chances?

Luton’s plan in the final third usually revolves around crosses from the wide areas, and they are pretty effective in doing that.

The data analysis of chance creation shows that Nottingham are very good at preventing these chances.

However, Luton have an above-average success rate in picking up second balls, whereas Nottingham are 4th worst in winning these balls within their own third of the pitch, which could lead to some threat around the box.

Nottingham’s strategy in the final third is much more diverse, and there are several ways to hurt their opponent.

And with Luton’s worst defence in the league, they will create chances not only from quick offensive transitions but also from positional attacks.

Positional weaknesses

These maps show the success rate of both runs and passes against the particular team.

Nottingham have issues defending their left side, whereas Luton are hugely vulnerable in their central areas:

Conclusion

As I see this, there will be goals in this game.

On a Free Hit, I'd be very tempted to invest in NFO's offensive assets, although I'd wait for pressers for more information on who will start.

The defence is much more trickier. I'd stay away from Matz Sels, and anyone without offensive potential. Harry Toffolo seems like a viable pick, although I do think there's a high possibility Luton will score.

That being said, I also don't expect they will score a lot, as they will face a solid defence.