Assessing the best goalkeepers for Gameweek 35 Wildcard

Today’s topic

With just 4 gameweeks remaining from the current Fantasy Premier League season, 49% of managers in the top 10k are yet to play their wildcard.

Due to the shortage of games and several teams doubling in GWs 35 and 37, there’s not THAT much left to be solved.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s still some space to manoeuvre, but it’s shrinking fast.

The GK position, however…

Although it’s a very niche spot in your team, it is something you can play with.

So what are your options?

André Onana

This pick might seem counter-intuitive.

United’s defence has been in shambles lately as the team concedes a massive volume of chances game after game.

Since December, they have been ranked 2nd-worst in the non-penalty xG conceded metric (with a hefty 2.04 xGC per game), meaning only Luton Town fare worse.

If we trim the sample size a little further, it’s 2.14 xGC per game in this calendar year, so the last 12 games they played.

Again, only Luton post worse results.

Since December, they have allowed 373 non-penalty shots, the most in the Premier League.

Yes, that’s almost 20 per game.

It sounds almost suicidal to own someone playing behind the defence that poor.

BUT

The by-product of that obscure number of shots coming in Onana’s direction is that there’s also a fine amount of less dangerous attempts, which are quite easy to save.

United’s 0.104 xG conceded per shot is the 7th best result in that period.

In addition, according to the most vital data metrics, Onana is one of the best league shot-stoppers.

As one of the teams that will double in GW37, Manchester United have five games left to play, with Burnley and Brighton ranking amongst the worst when it comes to the average threat of their shots (meaning their xG/shot is very low).

While I don’t see many clean sheets coming, the save potential is huge.

Djordje Petrovic

Contrary to the beliefs of many, Petrovic has been one of the worst Premier League shot-stoppers this season.

Still, there’s a pretty substantial merit in owning him, as strange as it sounds after Tuesday’s game against Arsenal.

Reason number one - the quality of shots allowed.

In my favourite post-December sample size, Chelsea are ranked 8th-best for non-penalty xG conceded.

Not great, not terrible, you might say.

But they allow quite a high number of shots, and these attempts are not very dangerous on average.

With 0.099 xGC per shot, they are second only to… yes, Arsenal.

So, even if Petrovic doesn’t shine, he should make some save points.

Reason number two - context.

Aka, the number of games left.

Chelsea are awaiting not one but two Double Gameweeks:

6 games in the 4 remaining GWs are tough to resist.

Quantity over quality, but I don’t mind going that way.

Reason number three - the lack of other good defensive options from their team.

Gusto is undergoing a medical assessment at the time of writing this, and other defenders are not really an option due to the lack of a sufficient final product.

Guglielmo Vicario

Naturally, the main focus is on goalkeepers involved in double gameweeks.

We already know that Onana and Petrovic are located at opposite ends of the shot-stopping scale, but where does Vicario stand?

Well, he’s been great this season.

Very, very close to Onana.

He has already salvaged Tottenham with so many important saves.

Spurs are about average in terms of xG conceded and are doing well in the number of shots allowed metric.

Considering Vicario's performances and the Spurs' two doubles, he is the clear pick for your wildcard, right?

Right?

Well, not exactly

Spurs often commit massive defensive mistakes and let their opponents shoot from dangerous central areas regularly.

With 0.131 xGC per shot, only Crystal Palace and Aston Villa are worse in this regard.

So you need to rely on another Vicario’s heroics against tough opponents, which may or may not continue.

And that’s risky, to say at least.

As for the others, let’s be real quick:

Ederson - he seems appealing. Five games are on the horizon, with solid potential for clean sheets. On the other hand, he is pricey and won’t rack many saves. Also, the upside may lie in doubling/tripling up elsewhere.

David Raya - just 4 games remaining, but Arsenal’s defence is out of this world, so I’m a big proponent of their defensive double-up. I’m not against Raya being one of the selected players, although it’s probably better to chase the upside with defenders, given their added value of offensive potential.

As you can see, there are several ways to evaluate goalkeeper appeal, and the trio of Onana, Petrovic, and Vicario is a great example.

GK position is a very specific (and high variance) one.

There’s no need to spend an excessive amount of time on it, but it has some depth if you like to analyse your team.