FPL Cheat sheet: What’s the current state of the Premier League?

If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve come across my weekly FPL previews.

Don’t worry, they aren’t going anywhere.

But often, I’m trimming its content so it’s digestible for my readers.

That’s why I’m launching Midweek Dribble, a regular newsletter that further enhances your FPL experience.

On 𝕏, I’m taking the entire midfield in one spell of possession, Yves Bissouma-style.

Here, I’ll do just one sweet dribble, delivered to your email every Wednesday!

Today’s topic

In FPL, there are always moves you are absolutely sure of

Like this week (or the previous one), which marks the return of Mohamed Salah to our teams

And it feels good, given the havoc he could have caused the non-owners in GW30

But there are also moments you get lost in the flood of information

Gameweeks are passing by at a rapid pace, and it’s normal to feel a little puzzled at times

So, I’m here to help and to give you a general view of the current Premier League landscape

This time, the focus will be on the teams

Why last 15 games?

Although following data metrics in the sample size of the whole season is undoubtedly a proper thing to do, I also like to make some adjustments to make more accurate decisions

For me, the sweet spot for „the form“ (or whatever you want to call it) indicator is about 15 games

In the Premier League, it’s since December 5th

That way, you can evaluate some of the recent performances without much need to adjust them for the quality of the fixtures

Still, it’s good to have some awareness about the injuries (you can use sites like Fantasy Football Scout to track them), as it can have a huge impact on a team’s performance

Non-penalty xPoints (last 15)

Comparing xPoints with actual ones gives you a good idea of which teams are over/underperforming

Fixture difficulty ranking (FDR) on the Fantasy Premier League website is not the most accurate one, so you need to fine-tune it for yourself

The red colour on the FDR does not necessarily mean that the upcoming fixture is terrible for your offensive/defensive player, and the green one isn’t always rainbows and sunshine

Now that we have established xPoints let’s look at WHY the teams perform that way

Is it because of their offence or defence?

Non-penalty xG conceded (last 15)

This table shows you that:

a) Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest or Everton are no longer considered to be „easy“ games for your offensive assets

b) Arsenal’s defence is out of this world at the moment…

… and much else

So you can take the information into account when you face an important decision regarding captaincy, who to play/bench, bench order, or which transfers to make

Every piece of information has it’s value

Non-penalty xG (last 15)

When it comes to evaluating your offensive player’s ability, it’s much more important to track their individual underlying data like xG/xA/number of shots/finishing ability, but you also want their team to be dominant and create many dangerous goal-scoring opportunities

Regarding your defenders, you want to start someone who faces a team which creates very few of them, like Burnley or Crystal Palace

Basics, I know

Set-pieces (last 15)

Let’s end this week’s Midweek Dribble with some update on recent set-piece performances

The table below shows xG from ALL set-pieces

The table below shows xG CONCEDED from ALL set-pieces