Bryan Mbeumo is back. Is he a good FPL asset for the season run-in?

Today’s topic

At the beginning of the FPL season, the core of your team should consist of proven, high-performing assets.

However, given the limited budget, you must also identify “value players,” i.e., those with the highest potential to rack up points while being affordable.

It’s one of the most satisfying feelings the game can provide when you get it right.

And that’s precisely what happened to Bryan Mbeumo’s (£6.7m) owners in the 23/24 season.

Two double-digit hauls in the first three gameweeks.

87 points in the first 15 GWs, almost 6 per game.

Then, the injury ruled him out for 16 GWs, abruptly ending his run.

But the hiatus is over.

Mbeumo scored on his return to the starting lineup last week and is back on the FPL menu.

Given the current FPL landscape, should you pay attention to him?

How good was he, really?

Let’s establish this real quick.

Mbeumo’s performances were elite at that time.

Per game, he averaged:

• 2.43 shots

• 0.34 non-penalty expected goals

• 0.21 open play expected assist

• 0.15 non-penalty xG per shot

All these numbers are in the 90th+ percentile for his position.

This means he regularly got himself into a significant volume of shots from the central areas in the opponent’s box and directly created many goal-scoring opportunities with his final passes. Most of his shots were very dangerous.

His xG and xA numbers are essentially on par with the likes of Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, or Alejandro Garnacho.

He converted 18% of his shots and scored 7 goals from the total xG of 7.72, so there wasn’t any significant overperformance.

Now that Ivan Toney returned to Premier League action after serving his eight-month ban, Mbeumo is no longer the designated penalty taker.

However, he should still be responsible for a fair share of set pieces, along with Mathias Jensen.

What about Brentford?

As usual in FPL, there’s more to the story.

Brentford in GW15 and Brentford in GW33 are two very different sides.

You guessed it right - an injury crisis in the defence.

Rico Henry has been out since GW5.

Ethan Pinnock since GW24.

Ben Mee joined them on the sidelines in GW27.

And then there’s Christian Nørgaard, who has been missing for the last four gameweeks and whose return date remains unknown.

This, of course, has severe implications for their defence.

Let’s look at their non-penalty xG conceded numbers:

• GW1-15: 4th-best with 1.20 xGC per game

• Since December: 15th, 1.68

• Last 10 games: 15th, 1.70

The defence clearly struggles, as Brentford allows their opponents to make runs and passes into critical areas, significantly losing control over the game.

Nevertheless, they still can create many chances, which is a good sign.

Non-penalty xG created:

• GW1-15: 8th-best with 1.66 xG per game

• Since December: 9th, 1.49

• Last 10: 7th, 1.64

Fixtures

Although Brentford don’t have any Double GW coming up, their fixtures are tough to resist:

There are at least 4 fixtures (Sheffield United, Luton, Fulham, and Newcastle) from which you can extract a lot of value.

But there’s also an opportunity cost of missing another high-performing MIDs with great fixtures.

Cole Palmer (£5.9m) is almost essential for his upcoming run of fixtures, and there is a lot of merit in owning Anthony Gordon (£6.0m) and Alejandro Garnacho (£4.9m), who both double in DGW37 and cost less.

And Eberechi Eze (£6.0m)? He is one of the best picks until the end of the season.

So, the competition is fierce, and I rank all the players mentioned above slightly higher than Mbeumo when I consider the entire span of the remaining 6 GWs.

For those of you who need a 1-2 week punt or some fine differential for your mini-league, why not?

But in general, the opportunity cost is too severe.