Virgil van Dijk in Double GW25. And beyond that

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If you've ever played DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports), you're probably familiar with this strategy.

As you want to maximize the points you gain in ONE SPECIFIC GAMEWEEK, centre-backs are a way to go.

You pick one with both great defensive potential and the ability to score, thus someone who offers a substantial set-piece threat and faces the defence regularly conceding a high volume of dangerous shots from these situations.

Then, you watch James Tarkowski score a bullet header after Lewis Dunk did the same just a few hours earlier. Very satisfying indeed.

In contrast, when we play FPL, it's more about a long-term approach, so you only apply this thinking in specific situations.

Double gameweeks are one of them.

With uncertainty around Trent Alexander-Arnold and training clips showing Mohamed Salah running on the grass, a fresh option for Liverpool’s DGW25 emerged.

Virgil van Dijk, who you've been overlooking for 24 gameweeks now and expect you’ll benefit from his DGW haul.

On a serious note, I'm certainly not against it (team-dependent, of course).

Every proper defender analysis must begin with assessing the clean sheet potential.

After the slow start to the season, Liverpool's defence emerged as one of the best in the Premier League once again.

They are ranked 3rd best in the xG conceded metric over the whole season. Plus, they have Alisson Becker.

They are ranked 4th best in the same metric when we adjust for the "form", so starting December (we want to have some sample size).

With 1.11 xG conceded per game in that period, they are almost on par with Manchester City and... Bournemouth.

Yes, Andoni Iraola is certainly cooking.

In the DGW25, Liverpool face Brentford (A) and Luton Town (H), the 10th and 17th offence in terms of xG created, respectively.

We probably need to adjust slightly with Ivan Toney being back and looking sharp as ever, but you can still consider BRE's offence to be rather average overall.

Not a bad clean sheet prospects if you ask me.

And is Virgil any good in the air?

I can vividly hear Liverpool's fans screaming right now.

He's not just good. He's one of the best in the world:

With his contribution, Liverpool are ranked 1st in defensive aerial duel success rate in the current season.

Plus, 3rd in the offensive aerial duels success rate.

They are also ranked:

• 3rd in xG from all set-pieces

• 3rd in xG from corners

• 4th in xG per corner (its effectivity)

• 5th in goals scored from corners

And Virgil is heavily involved.

After all, he scored 19 set-piece goals since the 2015/2016 season.

In the current one, he is the main target of Liverpool's corners.

He leads the team stats with 23 attempts from them. For comparison, Diogo Jota is second with 8 shots, and Darwin is behind him with 5.

He scored one goal from the total of 2.24 xG, so he is due.

This leads us to the last piece of the puzzle - what about upcoming fixtures in terms of set-piece potential?

Brentford

Not very good. The Bees are well-known for mastering the set-pieces on both ends of the pitch, and it clearly shows, as only Arsenal and Manchester City defend them better. But it also doesn't mean they can't concede, as they already did 6 times. It's just not an easy match-up.

Luton

Much better. Luton are ranked 2nd worst for xG conceded from set-pieces.

Others

If you can afford to bench VVD in blank GW26, then comes Nottingham Forrest in GW27. This is good as they're very vulnerable and conceded the most set-piece goals - 14 already, two more than Burnley.

After that, Manchester City (H), Everton (away and very likely blank), and Brighton (H) aren't games with much appeal. These sides are good offensively and sound in defending the set-pieces.

So, it depends on whether your team can handle this rather short-term pick in this hectic DGW/BGW period when free transfers are scarce. If the answer is yes, then VVD is certainly an appealing option.