Something's going on with Bournemouth. And you're gonna love it

If you're reading this, chances are you've come across my weekly FPL previews.

Don't worry, they aren't going anywhere.

But often, I'm trimming its content so it’s digestible for my readers.

That's why I'm launching Midweek Dribble, a regular newsletter that further enhances your FPL experience.

On 𝕏, I’m taking the entire midfield in one spell of possession, Yves Bissouma-style.

Here, I'll do just one sweet dribble, delivered to your email every Wednesday!

Today’s topic

You're probably having a love-hate relationship with your defence right now.

Clean sheets are scarce, but as Gabriel has recently shown us, haul from your defender is indeed very satisfying and can propel you to a huge rank boost.

You need to be on a constant lookout for opportunities.

Not to wait for them but to create them.

This time, I will talk about Bournemouth. Who would have thought that three months ago?

What is happening with Bournemouth?

With Double GW28 looming, you probably set up your plan to get Dominic Solanke into motion (if you don’t already own him).

As you should. I'm a long-time proponent of him, and he's AN ABSOLUTE must for his double against Sheffield United and Luton Town, both at home. I don't think I need to tell you this.

But there's something else going on.

Their defence is rock solid lately, and it clearly shows even in a larger sample size.

After GW25, they are ranked 11th best in expected goals conceded.

Their 1.51 xG conceded per game is on par with Aston Villa, Brentford, and Crystal Palace, which may surprise you.

And it’s very impressive, considering that they were the 3rd-worst defence at the beginning of December (around GW14), allowing the same volume of quality chances as Burnley.

Since December, they have allowed only 1.14 xG per game on average. Only Arsenal and Manchester City fare better.

In the process, they have met many dangerous offences - Aston Villa, Tottenham, Liverpool, Newcastle, and you can add United.

Set-pieces? Elite

Something has changed for Bournemouth towards the end of the year. Not only have they started allowing less dangerous shots, but there's a very positive trend regarding set pieces.

Post GW13, only Manchester City defend them better.

And only Everton create better chances from them.

They've scored 5 goals since December (from 5.34 expected, so no overperformance):

I know what you're all thinking and am here to answer.

Yes, I like the thought of owning BOU defenders from GW27 forward. It's challenging to predict who Andoni Iraola will play in the midfield, as he has plenty of good options and will rotate them heavily.

Marcus Tavernier is the only one I'd consider, but it's not an essential move by any means, as there are many other good MID options elsewhere. So, the Solanke+DEF combo is certainly a viable one.

As for the second part of your question, I think it's between Marcos Senesi (£4.5m) and Ilya Zabarnyi (£4.4m). There are arguments for both of them.

Marcos Senesi, the creator

On paper, Senesi looks like a much better pick with his 3 goals and 2 assists already, with Zabarnyi yet to score or assist.

However, their goal threat is somewhat closer than it appears, as Ukrainian is a frequent target from set-pieces this season. What I question is his ability to finish these chances, but that's pretty difficult to asses for defenders, as the sample size of shots isn't very big.

Senesi has a pretty decent scoring record from Eredivisie, on the other hand, which is something to factor in. What is further swaying me on his side is that he's one of the best Premier League centre-backs on the ball.

His distribution with long passes is just elite.

He often appears in the left half-space to execute passes to the cutback zone, deep crosses or diagonals, so there's a substantial creative upside in him.

So, he's my number one defensive choice.

I feel I also need to mention Neto briefly.

In a vacuum, I'm not against owning him, but in the current FPL landscape, there's probably no need for that. Free transfers are valuable in this hectic period, and you can gain more value elsewhere. GK transfers are an unnecessary luxury.

Bournemouth allow just 0.096 xG per shot in the last 11 games (4th best), but they also allow 5th lowest amount of shots, so you can't expect that many save points.