Choosing the right GK on a wildcard. Is Sels the one?

The goalkeeper position in FPL is a bit of a gamble at the beginning of the season.

Not only is it not easy to evaluate/predict defensive performances and the quality of shots teams will concede, but keepers tend to be very unpredictable (you’ll see a perfect example in a moment).

Plus, you usually have to stick with the initial pick for a while because you have much more important issues to solve.

On the other hand, it’s not a priority for a reason.

Entering GW10, the difference between the highest-scoring GKs (Sels and Onana) and, let’s say, Dean Henderson, who was a popular pick back in August, is only 10 points.

Which would be nice to have, but it’s not a season-defining loss.

Now that the popular wildcard window is quickly approaching, we can finally aim for an optimal pick…

Matz Sels (£4.6m)

Let’s quickly outline what your thought process should be:

There are two realistic ways for your goalkeeper to move you up the ranks apart from the appearance and bonus points—clean sheets and saves.

Ideally, you should look for someone who plays behind a good defence, which allows saveable shots (duh).

Then there’s the third factor—a goalkeeper’s shot-stopping quality. Because, well, he still needs to save these shots. Yet, it’s often neglected.

At the beginning of the season, I was confident that Nottingham Forest would meet the defence-oriented conditions.

And they really did:

• 4th-best in expected goals conceded (xGC) after playing mostly against offensively capable teams

• 123 shots conceded (14 per game), 10th most in the Premier League

• 2nd lowest xG per shot conceded

What you couldn’t possibly predict is that Sels will become the best shot-stopper in the league, creating this ideal FPL goalkeeper scenario.